AI-based computer has predicted results of the Olympic Games in Sochi

The US team will top an unofficial team ranking at the Winter Olympics in Sochi, and "gold" in figure-skating will be given to the Canadian athlete Patrick Chan. These are the conclusions made by Perm State University (Perm, Russia) mathematicians who have applied the neural-network computing technologies for analysis of the national teams' success criterion for the last 40 years.

According to Leonid Yasnitsky, Professor of the Applied Mathematics and Computer Science Department, the artificial intelligence methods allow to analyse the processes that cannot be analysed by traditional mathematical methods. «We have trained a computer to work with the results of the Olympic Games and individual sports over the past 40 years. The obtained data have made it possible to predict the achievements of national teams» – explained Prof. Yasnitsky.

For analysis some criteria such as country's population, GDP per capita, snow cover duration, the results of past competitions and others were used. For figure-skaters the individual criteria such as height, weight, age and experience, athlete indicators in spins, jumps and steps, recent records and injuries were devised.

Artificial intelligence has assessed that the US team has got the biggest chances to win in unofficial team ranking, then Germany, Canada and Russia go in succession. The forecast for figure-skating is rather disappointing for the hosting country of the Olympics 2014.  There is a great probability that «gold» with significant advantage in points will be received by a Canadian Patrick Chan, Yevgeny Plushenko will compete for “silver” with another Canadian Kevin Reynolds.

The AI-based research also makes it possible to define what changes will let an athlete advance chances to win. So, losing weight for 4 kg increases Evgeny Plushenko`s chances at 9%. Obtained data show that in the coming 5 years the results of the Russian athlete will be stable. At the same time Chan is likely to improve his results, but Reynolds might make his worse.

«All the models created by PSU group comprised of researchers both from the Faculty of Mechanics and Maths and the Faculty of Philosophy and Sociology have been double-checked by some latest sports competitions. As a result, the error hasn`t exceeded 15%» – told Prof. Yasnitsky.


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