Mathematical Modeling and IT for Forecasting and Management of Socioeconomic Development of Countries and Territories
Basic Division: Department of Information Systems and Mathematical Methods in Economics
Brief Description of Research Activities
New approaches, methods, algorithms and software systems aimed at decision-making in the field of forecasting and management for real socioeconomic systems at all levels are developed on the basis of modern dynamic models and the theory of evidence-based computing experiment. The results are implemented to develop business intelligence systems of general and specific purpose. Over the past 20 years of work a considerable amount of positive experience has been gained in the project development in the following fields: macroeconomic processes and regional economy forecasting; modeling of socioeconomic development and finance and budgeting sphere; analysis and monitoring of financing and operating activities of enterprises; modeling and management in banks and financial institutions; financial risks analysis and management; planning and budgeting.
Selected Publications Describing the Research Trend
1. Andrianov D.L. Difference equations and the elaboration of computer systems for monitoring and forecasting socioeconomic development of the country and territories, proceedings of the conference on differential and difference equations and applications/ Hindawi Publishing Corporation. New York, 2006. P. 1231-1237. (In English)
2. Andrianov D.L. PROGNOZ Analytical Suite // Analytics-Capital. Computer science and analytics genesis in corporate and administrative management. M.: All-Russian Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2005. P. 60-145. (In Russian)
3. Andrianov D.L., Selyanin A.O. et al. Target management of socioeconomic development processes in the Russian Federation's constituent territories: modeling, information, mathematical and instrumental support/ Perm State University. Perm, 2008. 239 p. (In Russian)
4. Maksimov V.P. Theory of functional differential equations and some problems in economic dynamics// Proceedings of the Conference on Differential and Difference Equations and Applications/ Hindawi Publishing Corporation. New York, 2006. P. 757-765. (In English)
5. Azbelev N., Maksimov V., Rakhmatullina L. Introduction to the theory of functional differential equations: methods and applications / Hindawi Publishing Corporation. New York, 2007. 314 p. (In English)
6. Azbelev N., Simonov P. Stability of Differential Equations with Aftereffect / Taylor&Francis. London; New York, 2002. 222 p. (In English)
The Most Significant Fundamental Research Projects
1. "Management of socioeconomic development processes: designing systems of information and intellectual support based on the theory of evidence-based computing experiment". Programme "Development of scientific potential of higher school" RPN №7803, 2006-2008. Project supervisor: Dmitry L. Andrianov.
2. "Research of attainability of socioeconomic development indicators and construction of duty factor controlling actions for regional socioeconomic systems. Methods, algorithms, computer-aided implementation". Russian Foundation for Basic Research №04-06-96002, 2004-2006. Project supervisor: Vladimir P. Maksimov.
The Most Significant Applied Research Projects, Including Enterprise Orders
Implementation of the fundamental research combined with the IT makes it possible to create the software products of international standard which satisfy the demand of a wide range of clients.
Among the Russian users of forecasting and analytical systems are governmental authorities, large industrial enterprises, international financial institutions: the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economy of the RF, the Ministry of Finance of the RF, the Central Bank of Russia, the Accounts Chamber of the RF, the Federal Tax Service, the Federal Customs Service, the administrations of more than 18 constituent territories of the RF, Gazprom, Sberbank, Vneshtorgeconombank, Gazprombank, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund.
Training of Researchers
Post-graduate Studies with a specialisation 08.00.13 "Mathematical and Instrumental Methods in Economics".
From 2003 to 2009 fifteen Candidate Dissertations in the specialisation "Mathematical and Instrumental Methods in Economics" were done within the framework of the programme.
International Scientific and Educational Activities
Among the international projects on designing of analysis and forecasting systems are:
1. Systems for collecting, processing, analyzing and forecasting the major economic indicators of countries worldwide. In cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
2. System of monitoring, analyzing and planning spending in health service. In cooperation with the World Bank.
3. System of monitoring and analysis of indicators in the developing countries. In cooperation with the USAID.
4. System of analysis and forecasting of supply and demand for electrical power. In cooperation with the State Grid Corporation of China.
5. System of analysis of external economic activity of countries worldwide. In cooperation with American Express.
6. System of monitoring and analyzing of agricultural data in Europe. In cooperation with Bayer.
7. System of analysis of world agro-industrial complex. In cooperation with Syngenta.
8. System of monitoring, analysis and forecasting of power industry of China. In cooperation with the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission of the Government of the People's Republic of China.
9. Information and analytical system to research freight traffic activity of a transport shipping company. In cooperation with China Ocean Shipping Company.